Tue, Jan 9, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 115 | 19 | 432 |
| TBL | 214 | 111 | 29 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23CARBrock McGinnPPAssists: Justin Williams, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:02TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 12:10CARSebastian AhoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 16:26TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Anton Stralman, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 1:58TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Jake Dotchin, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 10:36CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 9:27TBLJake DotchinAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 14:54TBLTyler JohnsonGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 18:42CARElias LindholmAssists: Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:18TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:50TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:05TBLBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:51TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris9:08
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn14:44
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Skinner – Lindholm – Ryan11:27
xG 0.34–0.70 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 0–2
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:07
xG 0.15–0.66 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Dahlbeck13:46
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Pesce – Hanifin15:00
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin2:28
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Stamkos – Kucherov12:37
xG 0.59–0.14 (81%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point11:55
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 3–0
- Callahan – Brown – Paquette8:48
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Gourde12:51
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin17:10
xG 1.20–0.19 (86%)attempts 22–10goals 4–0
- Coburn – Sustr11:53
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman3:58
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).