Mon, Feb 26, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 010 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 330 |
| TBL | 110 | 216 | 012 | 04 | 1 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41TBLChris KunitzAssists: Andrej Sustr, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:49TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ron Hainsey, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 9:52TORMitch MarnerAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nikita Zaitsev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 3:52TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 15:18TBLAdam ErneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 5:27TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
- 2. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. TOR Kasperi Kapanen stopped
- 5. TBL Yanni Gourde stopped
- 6. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:20TORTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:56TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:46TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:30TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:40TBLBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:58TBLVictor Hedman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 16:12TORTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Hyman – Nylander – Kapanen8:10
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner12:16
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:48
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Komarov – Leivo7:42
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly12:22
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Polak – Dermott12:33
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:39
xG 0.20–0.49 (29%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Gourde – Erne7:22
xG 0.70–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Point11:58
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Point5:26
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette4:23
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr11:26
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek3:13
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Girardi – Sergachev6:32
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).