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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 26, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:21Shot by Gourde, saved by Andersen
  3. P1 0:24Shot by Killorn, saved by Andersen
  4. P1 1:06Shot by Kapanen, saved by Vasilevskiy
  5. P1 1:41Goal by Kunitz (Sustr, Stamkos)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kunitz, Coburn, Stamkos, Kucherov, Sustr · TOR Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Brown, Nylander

  6. P1 2:12Shot by Dermott, saved by Vasilevskiy
  7. P1 4:38Shot by Kadri, saved by Vasilevskiy
  8. P1 5:46Shot by Koekkoek, saved by Andersen
  9. P1 8:49Goal by van Riemsdyk (Hainsey, Rielly)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Girardi, Hedman, Conacher, Paquette · TOR Hainsey, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly, Brown

  10. P1 9:11Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 9:52Goal by Marner (Gardiner, Zaitsev)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Killorn, Hedman, Gourde, Point · TOR Gardiner, Hyman, Nylander, Marner, Zaitsev

  12. P1 11:23Shot by Coburn, saved by Andersen
  13. P1 12:48Shot by Komarov, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 15:11Shot by Sustr, saved by Andersen
  15. P1 15:47Shot by Conacher, saved by Andersen
  16. P1 16:20Plekanec: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Conacher, Koekkoek, Paquette, Erne · TOR Hainsey, Plekanec, Komarov, Leivo, Rielly

  17. P1 18:03Shot by Callahan, saved by Andersen5v4
  18. P1 18:08Shot by Callahan, saved by Andersen5v4
  19. P1 18:35Shot by Killorn, saved by Andersen
  20. P1 19:38Shot by Marner, saved by Vasilevskiy
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:20Shot by Stralman, saved by Andersen
  24. P2 0:44Shot by Gourde, saved by Andersen
  25. P2 1:42Shot by Killorn, saved by Andersen
  26. P2 2:39Shot by Leivo, saved by Vasilevskiy
  27. P2 3:38Shot by Koekkoek, saved by Andersen
  28. P2 3:49Shot by Johnson, saved by Andersen
  29. P2 3:50Shot by Johnson, saved by Andersen
  30. P2 3:52Goal by Johnson (Gourde)+21 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Girardi, Johnson, Gourde, Koekkoek, Erne · TOR Plekanec, Polak, Komarov, Leivo, Rielly

  31. P2 4:48Shot by Coburn, saved by Andersen
  32. P2 4:56Bozak: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Callahan, Killorn, Stamkos, Sustr, Point · TOR van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Brown, Zaitsev

  33. P2 5:45Shot by Kapanen, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  34. P2 5:46Gourde: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Killorn, Conacher, Gourde, Sergachev · TOR Hainsey, Polak, Brown, Kapanen

  35. P2 6:10Stamkos: Slashing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Girardi, Stamkos, Johnson, Hedman · TOR Gardiner, Brown, Nylander, Dermott

  36. P2 7:16Shot by Leivo, saved by Vasilevskiy3v5
  37. P2 7:33Shot by Kadri, saved by Vasilevskiy3v5
  38. P2 7:56Shot by Marleau, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  39. P2 9:08Shot by Hedman, saved by Andersen
  40. P2 12:30Killorn: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Point · TOR Polak, Hyman, Nylander, Kapanen, Dermott

  41. P2 12:42Shot by Marner, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  42. P2 14:24Shot by Leivo, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  43. P2 15:14Shot by Sergachev, saved by Andersen
  44. P2 15:18Goal by Erne, unassisted+24 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Johnson, Gourde, Erne, Sergachev · TOR Polak, Leivo, Nylander, Kapanen, Zaitsev

  45. P2 15:55Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy
  46. P2 16:16Shot by Kadri, saved by Vasilevskiy
  47. P2 16:31Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 18:06Shot by Sustr, saved by Andersen
  49. P2 18:41Rielly: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Girardi, Conacher, Paquette, Sergachev · TOR Hainsey, Komarov, Leivo, Rielly, Nylander

  50. P2 19:09Shot by Stamkos, saved by Andersen5v4
  51. P2 19:18Shot by Point, saved by Andersen5v4
  52. P2 19:22Shot by Kunitz, saved by Andersen5v4
  53. P2 19:50Shot by Hedman, saved by Andersen5v4
  54. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  55. P3 0:00Period start
  56. P3 0:42Shot by Stamkos, saved by Andersen
  57. P3 0:44Shot by Hedman, saved by Andersen
  58. P3 2:25Shot by Sustr, saved by Andersen
  59. P3 4:00Shot by Plekanec, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 4:40Coburn: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Coburn, Killorn, Stamkos, Sustr, Point · TOR Hainsey, Polak, Hyman, Nylander, Kapanen

  61. P3 4:48Shot by Bozak, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  62. P3 5:02Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  63. P3 5:11Shot by Bozak, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  64. P3 5:27Goal by Bozak (Marner, Rielly)4v5+26 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Callahan, Girardi, Johnson, Hedman · TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kadri, Rielly, Marner

  65. P3 6:43Shot by Stralman, saved by Andersen
  66. P3 8:39Shot by Gourde, saved by Andersen
  67. P3 8:55Shot by Girardi, saved by Andersen
  68. P3 9:02Shot by Paquette, saved by Andersen
  69. P3 9:51Shot by Point, saved by Andersen
  70. P3 11:08Shot by Polak, saved by Vasilevskiy
  71. P3 12:02Shot by Gardiner, saved by Vasilevskiy
  72. P3 12:17Shot by Brown, saved by Vasilevskiy
  73. P3 12:47Shot by Coburn, saved by Andersen
  74. P3 13:58Hedman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway (0 min)

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Johnson, Hedman, Gourde, Erne · TOR Marleau, Polak, Kadri, Dermott, Marner

  75. P3 13:58Shot by Marner, saved by Vasilevskiyother
  76. P3 14:31Shot by Sergachev, saved by Andersen
  77. P3 15:07Shot by Hedman, saved by Andersen
  78. P3 16:12Plekanec: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kunitz, Coburn, Callahan, Paquette, Sustr · TOR Hainsey, Plekanec, Hyman, Rielly, Nylander

  79. P3 18:01Shot by Killorn, saved by Andersen5v4
  80. P3 0:00Period end
  81. OT 0:00Period start
  82. OT 0:37Shot by Rielly, saved by Vasilevskiy3v3
  83. OT 1:27Shot by Marleau, saved by Vasilevskiy3v3
  84. OT 1:41Shot by Hedman, saved by Andersen3v3
  85. OT 1:45Shot by Stamkos, saved by Andersen3v3
  86. OT 1:55Shot by Marleau, saved by Vasilevskiy3v3
  87. OT 2:56Shot by Sergachev, saved by Andersen3v3
  88. OT 3:32Shot by Stralman, saved by Andersen3v3
  89. OT 5:00Period end3v3
  90. SO Period start
  91. SO Shot by Callahan, saved by Andersenother
  92. SO Shot by Nylander, saved by Vasilevskiyother
  93. SO Goal by Point, unassistedother
  94. SO Shot by Kapanen, saved by Vasilevskiyother
  95. SO Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Vasilevskiyother
  96. SO Period end
  97. SO Final