Mon, Mar 5, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 114 | 111 | 116 | 341 |
| BUF | 26 | 214 | 14 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:43BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Johan Larsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 19:52TORLeo KomarovPPAssists: William Nylander, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 10:48TORLeo KomarovAssists: Matt Martin, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 13:30BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Sam Reinhart, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 15:35BUFRyan O'ReillyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 9:55BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Jason Pominville, Jordan Nolan · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 17:57TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Connor Carrick, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.05 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:23TORConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:39BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:39TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:39TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:14BUFSam Reinhart: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Marner11:15
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Kapanen11:38
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Komarov – Martin8:56
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Hyman – Brown – Nylander12:09
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev14:39
xG 0.83–0.27 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Carrick – Dermott14:35
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:21
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Larsson – Wilson11:00
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Baptiste – Criscuolo3:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart13:42
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Okposo – Josefson – Nolan12:42
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Antipin11:50
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Nelson3:11
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen18:06
xG 0.58–0.87 (40%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).