Tue, Mar 20, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 15 | 316 | 01 | 0 | 431 |
| DET | 013 | 39 | 14 | 05 | 1 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:08DETDylan LarkinAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:59DETLuke GlendeningSHAssists: Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 8:53PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 9:57DETEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Martin Frk, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 7:46PHIMatt ReadAssists: Scott Laughton, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 9:40PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 14:06DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 14:34PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. PHI Jordan Weal stopped
- 5. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 6. PHI Nolan Patrick stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:05PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P2 2:27DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:13DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:40DETHenrik Zetterberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Lindblom – Konecny5:01
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny10:08
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:48
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton6:03
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Provorov19:03
xG 1.01–0.59 (63%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Sanheim18:54
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Gudas – Hagg10:53
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi12:22
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Glendening – Frk – Svechnikov5:04
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Svechnikov2:12
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou7:54
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Jensen12:56
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Daley – DeKeyser14:52
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Green16:41
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 8–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).