Thu, Mar 29, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 28 | 312 | 632 |
| BUF | 211 | 013 | 18 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16BUFJack EichelAssists: Jason Pominville, Brendan Guhle · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:11BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 7:41DETDylan LarkinAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:21DETDarren HelmSHAssists: Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 16:26DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Joe Hicketts, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 1:50DETAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 4:51BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 10:10DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 16:59DETEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:54DETMartin Frk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:15BUFJordan Nolan: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:23BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 4:45DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:49DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:26BUFJordan Nolan: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 6:06DETTrevor Daley: Holding2 min
- P3 11:53BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:00BUFJustin Falk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou6:06
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi9:02
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Mantha – Larkin – Svechnikov4:06
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Helm – Glendening – Frk2:18
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser5:23
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Hicketts10:59
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen9:12
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Girgensons – Eichel10:14
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Wilson8:43
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Baptiste6:48
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt7:35
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Nelson9:36
xG 0.49–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Scandella – Ristolainen3:37
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Guhle – Nelson2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).