Fri, Apr 6, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 316 | 07 | 532 |
| TBL | 313 | 15 | 316 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 2:57BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Marco Scandella, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 4:35TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 6:32BUFAlex NylanderAssists: Brendan Guhle, Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P1 9:40TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 1:04TBLDan GirardiAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 8:59BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Brendan Guhle, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P2 15:58BUFJordan NolanAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–4
- P2 18:45BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 6:15TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–5
- P3 7:02TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde · Slap, 0.09 xG5–6
- P3 18:34TBLVictor HedmanENAssists: Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:16TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 17:22TBLCory Conacher: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:24BUFMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:24BUFMarco Scandella: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:55TBLJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:46TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:50BUFMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:19TBLCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNolan – Larsson – Baptiste4:50
xG 0.29–0.22 (56%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Wilson2:58
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pominville – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt6:50
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Reinhart – Nylander8:26
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Beaulieu9:29
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Guhle14:36
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 15–14goals 2–3
- Scandella – Nelson13:48
xG 0.01–0.58 (2%)attempts 3–16goals 0–3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gourde – Cirelli9:11
xG 0.71–0.16 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 3–0
- Johnson – Conacher – Miller7:31
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette8:00
xG 0.24–0.23 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Point9:13
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – McDonagh13:54
xG 0.80–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 3–1
- Coburn – Sergachev6:31
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Girardi – Hedman12:34
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).