Thu, Jan 10, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 18 | 07 | 127 |
| TBL | 03 | 012 | 315 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:34CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 11:56TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 16:45TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 19:34TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:03CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:06TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min
- P1 17:29CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:42TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:12CARWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:11TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P2 17:47TBLAdam Erne: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:15CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:05CARGreg McKegg: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Martinook – Wallmark9:01
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho10:16
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Rask – Maenalanen – Foegele7:53
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Williams – McKegg – Svechnikov10:27
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Faulk12:46
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk13:03
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce13:34
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point11:22
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde2:52
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Palat8:52
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Gourde – Erne – Cirelli4:40
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak13:00
xG 0.71–0.06 (92%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman11:44
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi2:10
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).