Thu, Apr 4, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 212 | 05 | 06 | 223 |
| BUF | 112 | 212 | 216 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Cody Ceci, Rudolfs Balcers · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:40BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 9:10OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Max Veronneau · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 6:12BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 8:26BUFSam ReinhartGWGAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 11:06BUFJack EichelAssists: Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 12:57BUFJason PominvilleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:02OTTRudolfs Balcers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:22BUFBrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:28BUFJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:52OTTDylan DeMelo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:50BUFJack Eichel: Interference2 min
- P2 15:35OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:55BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Duclair – Balcers6:33
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Boedker – Pageau – Veronneau7:41
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Lindberg9:09
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Tkachuk2:08
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Englund3:13
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Englund – Jaros3:51
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Wolanin2:43
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:30
xG 0.95–0.12 (89%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons12:15
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Rodrigues10:17
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – Sheary – Mittelstadt8:42
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Dahlin15:12
xG 0.96–0.49 (66%)attempts 23–13goals 1–1
- Nelson – Dahlin2:15
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Montour17:43
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).