Wed, Nov 27, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 08 | 112 | 11 | 329 |
| BUF | 09 | 110 | 116 | 01 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:55CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 6:32BUFJimmy VeseySHAssists: Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 1:55BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:02CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:17CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:31BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:35BUFMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min
- P2 18:10CGYDillon Dube: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:47CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rieder – Jankowski8:06
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube9:09
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:41
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk14:45
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:01
xG 1.10–0.58 (66%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson18:44
xG 0.62–0.48 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Stone – Kylington10:15
xG 0.13–1.11 (10%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Skinner – Sheary13:35
xG 0.91–0.66 (58%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Johansson – Vesey – Mittelstadt10:41
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Girgensons – Dea – Asplund5:21
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:51
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Jokiharju15:31
xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Scandella – Ristolainen16:41
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Montour13:27
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).