Fri, Nov 29, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
35%
10%
47%
BUF winsTOR wins
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:39 | 0.00 | 59.1% | +14.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 4 | 24:48 | 0.32 | 55.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −4 | 4 | 23:10 | 0.66 | 45.0% | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22:51 | 0.59 | 57.9% | +35.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 22:44 | 0.07 | 56.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 22:34 | 0.10 | 39.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 4 | 19:09 | 0.19 | 53.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −3 | 0 | 18:49 | 0.00 | 43.5% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:52 | 0.29 | 54.8% | +21.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:04 | 0.13 | 64.2% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 15:04 | 0.36 | 21.6% | +27.2 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 3 | 13:16 | 0.06 | 33.7% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12:43 | 0.20 | 25.9% | +12.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0.00 | 30.6% | +12.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0.00 | 40.4% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:29 | 0.35 | 16.9% | +14.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:46 | 0.00 | 61.7% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 5:11 | 0.09 | 80.0% | +14.6 |
| L | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 2.55 | −2.5 | 58:08 |
Buffalo Sabres
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 8 | 21:36 | 0.90 | 67.3% | +39.5 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:23 | 0.01 | 57.7% | +23.3 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:16 | 0.09 | 59.4% | +1.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0.00 | 51.3% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 18:33 | 0.18 | 53.8% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:02 | 0.04 | 82.6% | +14.5 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 17:47 | 0.32 | 64.5% | +14.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:56 | 0.05 | 35.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:43 | 0.10 | 44.7% | +14.5 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 5 | 15:36 | 0.33 | 45.7% | +34.1 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:18 | 0.08 | 55.2% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0.00 | 58.0% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 14:47 | 0.22 | 64.0% | +34.2 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:45 | 0.10 | 39.4% | +14.5 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 13:30 | 0.02 | 32.8% | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 12:59 | 0.13 | 39.4% | +19.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0.00 | 62.6% | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10:43 | 0.45 | 61.1% | 0.0 |
| W | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 3.40 | −0.6 | 59:27 |