Tue, Jan 28, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 118 | 38 | 539 |
| BUF | 18 | 17 | 015 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59OTTJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:42BUFSam ReinhartPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 4:52OTTTyler EnnisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:48BUFJack EichelAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 8:43OTTMike ReillyPPGWGAssists: Tyler Ennis, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 17:54OTTMark BorowieckiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–2
- P3 19:54OTTNikita ZaitsevENAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:10BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:29OTTScott Sabourin: Interference2 min
- P1 13:15OTTMike Reilly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:11OTTConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:03BUFJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:00BUFMichael Frolik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:54BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11OTTNikita Zaitsev: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk10:05
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Sabourin – Chlapik5:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson8:55
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair6:41
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Chabot2:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot16:16
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – DeMelo12:56
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Johansson – Skinner7:22
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Vesey – Sheary2:07
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – Vesey – Lazar8:58
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel2:58
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen4:11
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Pilut5:45
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Montour4:15
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).