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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 28, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Ottawa Senators 5, Buffalo Sabres 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 91% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:48Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark
  3. P1 0:53Shot by Chabot, saved by Ullmark
  4. P1 2:10Dahlin: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Okposo, Vesey, Lazar, Montour, Dahlin · OTT Hainsey, Ennis, White, Chabot, Batherson

  5. P1 3:00Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark4v5
  6. P1 3:11Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark4v5
  7. P1 3:21Shot by White, saved by Ullmark4v5
  8. P1 3:36Shot by White, saved by Ullmark4v5
  9. P1 3:59Goal by Pageau (Chabot, Tkachuk)4v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Larsson, Miller, Girgensons, Ristolainen · OTT Pageau, Chabot, Zaitsev, Batherson, Tkachuk

  10. P1 8:29Sabourin: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Okposo, Vesey, Ristolainen, Lazar, Pilut · OTT Anisimov, Borowiecki, DeMelo, Sabourin, Chlapik

  11. P1 8:37Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Anderson5v4
  12. P1 9:38Shot by Johansson, saved by Anderson5v4
  13. P1 9:50Shot by Miller, saved by Anderson5v4
  14. P1 10:02Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Ullmark5v4
  15. P1 11:46Shot by Batherson, saved by Ullmark
  16. P1 11:58Shot by Johansson, saved by Anderson
  17. P1 12:57Shot by Pageau, saved by Ullmark
  18. P1 13:15Reilly: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Pilut · OTT Reilly, Namestnikov, Tierney, Duclair, Zaitsev

  19. P1 13:42Goal by Reinhart, unassisted5v4+18 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Johansson, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin · OTT Hainsey, Tierney, Brown, Zaitsev

  20. P1 15:14Shot by Brown, saved by Ullmark
  21. P1 16:09Shot by Larsson, saved by Anderson
  22. P1 17:08Shot by Girgensons, saved by Anderson
  23. P1 17:28Shot by Okposo, saved by Anderson
  24. P1 19:26Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark
  25. P1 19:34Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 0:11Brown: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Pilut · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Pageau, Brown, Tkachuk

  29. P2 1:03Shot by Reinhart, saved by Anderson5v4
  30. P2 2:18Shot by Miller, saved by Anderson
  31. P2 3:37Shot by Ennis, saved by Ullmark
  32. P2 4:03Skinner: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Frolik, Johansson, Skinner, Miller, Pilut · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Namestnikov, Tierney, Duclair

  33. P2 4:42Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark4v5
  34. P2 4:52Goal by Ennis (Batherson, Reilly)4v5+22 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Larsson, Girgensons, McCabe, Jokiharju · OTT Ennis, Pageau, Reilly, Batherson, Tkachuk

  35. P2 5:21Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark
  36. P2 5:28Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark
  37. P2 6:56Shot by Pageau, saved by Ullmark
  38. P2 7:02Shot by Brown, saved by Ullmark
  39. P2 7:13Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark
  40. P2 8:11Shot by Duclair, saved by Ullmark
  41. P2 8:23Shot by White, saved by Ullmark
  42. P2 8:25Shot by Ennis, saved by Ullmark
  43. P2 8:45Shot by Girgensons, saved by Anderson
  44. P2 8:48Goal by Eichel (Girgensons, Montour)+23 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Girgensons, Reinhart, Montour, Eichel, Dahlin · OTT Hainsey, Ennis, White, Chabot, Batherson

  45. P2 9:50Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark
  46. P2 10:00Shot by Sabourin, saved by Ullmark
  47. P2 10:48Shot by Frolik, saved by Anderson
  48. P2 11:10Shot by Frolik, saved by Anderson
  49. P2 12:11Shot by Chabot, saved by Ullmark
  50. P2 12:19Shot by DeMelo, saved by Ullmark
  51. P2 13:41Shot by Reilly, saved by Ullmark
  52. P2 15:24Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark
  53. P2 15:27Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark
  54. P2 18:42Shot by Okposo, saved by Anderson
  55. P2 0:00Period end
  56. P3 0:00Period start
  57. P3 0:23Shot by Reinhart, saved by Anderson
  58. P3 0:33Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Ullmark
  59. P3 5:45Shot by Okposo, saved by Anderson
  60. P3 5:54Shot by Ristolainen, saved by Anderson
  61. P3 7:49Shot by Johansson, saved by Anderson
  62. P3 8:00Frolik: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Frolik, Johansson, Skinner, Montour, Dahlin · OTT Hainsey, Namestnikov, Tierney, Duclair, Chabot

  63. P3 8:07Shot by Montour, saved by Anderson4v5
  64. P3 8:43Goal by Reilly (Ennis, Batherson)4v5+32 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Larsson, Girgensons, Montour, Pilut · OTT Ennis, Pageau, Reilly, Batherson, Tkachuk

  65. P3 10:53Shot by Lazar, saved by Anderson
  66. P3 10:54Okposo: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Okposo, Vesey, Ristolainen, Lazar, Pilut · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Pageau, Brown, Tkachuk

  67. P3 11:12Shot by Duclair, saved by Hutton4v5
  68. P3 11:37Shot by Duclair, saved by Hutton4v5
  69. P3 11:51Shot by White, saved by Hutton4v5
  70. P3 14:06Shot by Reinhart, saved by Anderson
  71. P3 14:30Shot by Skinner, saved by Anderson
  72. P3 14:41Shot by Reinhart, saved by Anderson
  73. P3 15:10Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Hutton
  74. P3 15:47Shot by Sheary, saved by Anderson
  75. P3 16:01Shot by Dahlin, saved by Anderson
  76. P3 16:11Zaitsev: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Vesey, Lazar, Sheary, Montour, Dahlin · OTT Reilly, Namestnikov, Tierney, Duclair, Zaitsev

  77. P3 16:25Shot by Johansson, saved by Anderson5v4
  78. P3 17:23Shot by Johansson, saved by Anderson5v4
  79. P3 17:54Goal by Borowiecki, unassisted6v4+6 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Johansson, Skinner, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Tierney, Brown

  80. P3 18:12Shot by Eichel, saved by Anderson6v5
  81. P3 19:41Shot by Eichel, saved by Anderson6v5
  82. P3 19:54Goal by Zaitsev (Hainsey)6v50 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Johansson, Skinner, Ristolainen, Reinhart, Eichel, Dahlin · OTT Hainsey, Pageau, Tierney, Brown, Zaitsev

  83. P3 0:00Period end
  84. P3 0:00Final