Sun, Feb 16, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 16 | 110 | 222 |
| BUF | 016 | 212 | 38 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:32BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 9:42BUFConor ShearyAssists: Colin Miller, Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 11:29TOREgor KorshkovAssists: Jason Spezza, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 2:11TORZach HymanAssists: Jake Muzzin, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 6:06BUFJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 6:55BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 7:37BUFJimmy VeseyAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:29TORTravis Dermott: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37TORJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12TORJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:42BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Clifford – Korshkov3:45
xG 0.16–0.09 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews17:15
xG 1.09–1.04 (51%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Kapanen – Engvall – Marchment2:19
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:05
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin3:54
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Barrie – Holl2:04
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott3:24
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Vesey – Lazar11:06
xG 1.45–0.21 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Sheary – Rodrigues8:12
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons12:46
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:16
xG 0.48–0.95 (34%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin11:47
xG 1.38–0.25 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Ristolainen – Montour17:26
xG 1.34–0.46 (75%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Miller – Montour2:22
xG 0.00–0.09 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).