Sun, Mar 8, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 212 | 215 | 03 | 1 | 437 |
| DET | 19 | 17 | 29 | 03 | 2 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11DETRobby FabbriAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 11:11TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 14:57TBLCarter VerhaegheUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 19:45DETDylan LarkinAssists: Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 1:41DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 4:24DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 5:55TBLBrayden PointAssists: Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 11:19TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Luke Schenn, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TBL Mikhail Sergachev scored
- 2. DET Sam Gagner stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. DET Dylan Larkin scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. DET Robby Fabbri scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:05TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P2 10:17DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:25DETRobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:49TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:56TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:44DETMadison Bowey: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Gourde – Paquette10:11
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Cirelli9:44
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Johnson – Palat – Point6:53
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point4:07
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – McDonagh2:24
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev16:22
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Schenn11:11
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Helm – Gagner6:00
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin12:32
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Helm – Glendening – Fabbri5:47
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Filppula – Gagner – Fabbri2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Hronek2:08
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hronek – Lindstrom2:52
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Lindstrom3:45
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).