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Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 8, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.

DET winsTBL wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

DET forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Maroon–Gourde–PaquetteKillorn–Kucherov–CirelliJohnson–Palat–PointPalat–Kucherov–PointColeman–Goodrow–VerhaegheJohnson–Goodrow–VerhaegheKillorn–Coleman–CirelliColeman–Kucherov–PointShattenkirk–SergachevMcDonagh–CernakBogosian–SchennShattenkirk–McDonaghSchenn–CernakBogosian–Sergachev
Bertuzzi–Mantha–Larkin3:230.00–0.001:430.00–0.082:360.00–0.101:410.26–0.030:430.06–0.050:400.08–0.004:290.02–0.154:560.41–0.092:170.06–0.01
Filppula–Helm–Gagner1:120.05–0.000:450.00–0.040:490.00–0.011:290.06–0.030:510.17–0.001:400.08–0.041:450.00–0.052:040.24–0.03
Helm–Glendening–Fabbri2:030.02–0.050:580.00–0.001:090.00–0.003:320.02–0.051:130.00–0.010:330.04–0.00
Nielsen–Abdelkader–Timashov2:120.07–0.392:120.04–0.001:440.02–0.001:200.05–0.001:460.00–0.39
Filppula–Gagner–Fabbri0:510.00–0.000:450.00–0.001:100.00–0.000:450.00–0.000:340.00–0.00
Glendening–Bertuzzi–Fabbri0:330.00–0.07
Nielsen–Fabbri–Timashov0:410.01–0.00
Filppula–Glendening–Fabbri1:040.00–0.171:000.00–0.03
Biega–Nemeth0:540.00–0.165:280.02–0.142:470.00–0.210:420.00–0.030:400.08–0.004:490.02–0.054:430.14–0.060:530.21–0.120:370.00–0.16
Daley–Hronek2:220.00–0.392:330.08–0.150:560.06–0.012:580.08–0.151:310.21–0.011:480.06–0.39
Bowey–Hronek1:260.02–0.000:430.00–0.000:440.00–0.000:530.00–0.002:080.00–0.040:350.00–0.00
Daley–Lindstrom1:350.00–0.181:310.05–0.000:310.00–0.000:400.04–0.002:410.01–0.03
Ericsson–Lindstrom0:500.05–0.000:370.00–0.040:330.00–0.070:460.00–0.040:410.05–0.001:210.06–0.000:530.04–0.07
Hronek–Lindstrom0:390.00–0.000:350.01–0.012:100.07–0.01
Bowey–Lindstrom1:190.01–0.00
Ericsson–Hronek0:350.00–0.000:400.00–0.050:470.17–0.001:300.00–0.05
Nemeth–Lindstrom1:030.00–0.030:360.07–0.080:300.00–0.000:350.00–0.070:350.00–0.01
Nemeth–Hronek1:440.00–0.060:510.00–0.00
Nemeth–Bowey0:340.04–0.000:440.00–0.001:140.06–0.00
Daley–Biega0:330.00–0.000:360.00–0.001:070.00–0.00
Ericsson–Bowey0:450.02–0.000:430.02–0.00
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3OTEndMantha FBertuzzi FLarkin FHelm FFilppula FGagner FFabbri FGlendening FAbdelkader FTimashov FNielsen FHronek DDaley DBowey DBiega DNemeth DLindstrom DEricsson DBernier GPaquette FMaroon FGourde FPalat FPoint FKucherov FKillorn FColeman FCirelli FVerhaeghe FJohnson FGoodrow FShattenkirk DSergachev DMcDonagh DCernak DSchenn DBogosian DMcElhinney G
DETTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Filip HronekDET2725:210:562:2135
Mikhail SergachevTBL2825:130:541:4780
Ryan McDonaghTBL2923:420:491:3525
Dylan LarkinDET2523:390:572:2844
Robby FabbriDET2323:011:001:5001
Patrik NemethDET2321:560:571:5023
Gustav LindstromDET2821:490:471:3211
Nikita KucherovTBL2521:300:521:4731
Tyler BertuzziDET2521:240:512:0973
Kevin ShattenkirkTBL2321:210:561:2641
Erik CernakTBL2721:210:471:1725
Brayden PointTBL2321:100:551:4972
Anthony CirelliTBL2320:590:551:5712
Alex KillornTBL2520:530:501:1131
Anthony ManthaDET2220:140:551:5553
Valtteri FilppulaDET2017:520:541:1623
Darren HelmDET2017:450:531:4720
Sam GagnerDET1817:350:591:2450
Ondrej PalatTBL2217:060:471:1741
Alex BiegaDET2116:500:481:4112
Tyler JohnsonTBL1916:190:521:5362
Luke GlendeningDET2015:070:451:4224
Zach BogosianTBL2014:450:441:2032
Trevor DaleyDET2214:420:401:0824
Madison BoweyDET1814:360:491:2213
Yanni GourdeTBL1613:410:511:1730
Luke SchennTBL1813:300:451:2021
Patrick MaroonTBL1513:250:541:3231
Cedric PaquetteTBL1612:180:461:1532
Barclay GoodrowTBL1612:050:451:0825
Frans NielsenDET1712:000:421:1624
Blake ColemanTBL1711:560:421:2522
Dmytro TimashovDET1611:370:441:2421
Carter VerhaegheTBL128:190:421:0422
Justin AbdelkaderDET118:150:451:1922
Jonathan EricssonDET87:040:531:2802