Thu, Feb 18, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 19 | 116 | 337 |
| TOR | 310 | 314 | 17 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:43TORJoe ThorntonAssists: Jake Muzzin, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:51OTTTim StützleAssists: Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 19:37TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 1:39TORIlya MikheyevGWGAssists: William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 3:45TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 7:37OTTConnor BrownAssists: Matthew Peca, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P2 11:00TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–6
- P3 11:11OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–6
- P3 16:53TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.07 xG3–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:03OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:34OTTChristian Wolanin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P2 9:28OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:30TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Peca – Tierney5:26
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Stepan – Batherson – Stützle6:12
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 1–2
- Brown – Norris – Tkachuk12:04
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Watson – Peca3:30
xG 0.06–0.16 (27%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWolanin – Zub16:05
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Reilly – Zaitsev15:38
xG 1.00–1.15 (47%)attempts 24–14goals 3–3
- Gudbranson – Brannstrom14:55
xG 0.62–0.81 (43%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestVesey – Engvall – Mikheyev9:50
xG 1.13–0.35 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:07
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marner – Matthews8:59
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 3–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Petan8:18
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly15:03
xG 1.37–0.18 (89%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Muzzin – Holl17:05
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Dermott – Lehtonen15:55
xG 0.74–1.25 (37%)attempts 9–32goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).