Thu, Mar 11, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 215 | 013 | 216 | 444 |
| DET | 36 | 212 | 15 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31DETTroy StecherAssists: Sam Gagner, Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:55TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 12:12DETDylan LarkinAssists: Filip Hronek, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 13:55TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Ondrej Palat · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P1 14:56DETAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 0:33DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 4:50DETRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 15:51TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 17:05TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–5
- P3 19:40DETVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Anthony Mantha, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:36DETBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:56TBLPatrick Maroon: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 1:31TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:34DETChristian Djoos: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:57DETRobby Fabbri: Interference2 min
- P2 12:27DETFilip Hronek: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:07DETAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:07TBLBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:08DETDarren Helm: Holding2 min
- P2 19:05TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:27DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03TBLBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli9:44
xG 0.84–0.12 (88%)attempts 18–2goals 1–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Colton8:17
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow8:42
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Gourde8:48
xG 0.27–0.38 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak13:49
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Foote8:56
xG 0.90–0.14 (87%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:43
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Larkin – Fabbri9:42
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 5–15goals 2–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne4:27
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Ryan – Erne – Rasmussen2:30
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Rasmussen – Zadina3:26
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Merrill6:14
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 5–9goals 3–0
- Nemeth – Merrill3:23
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Stecher4:20
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).