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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 11, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Detroit Red Wings 6

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:01Shot by Helm, saved by McElhinney
  3. P1 1:32Shot by Cirelli, saved by Bernier
  4. P1 1:34Shot by Palat, saved by Bernier
  5. P1 5:03Shot by McDonagh, saved by Bernier
  6. P1 5:32Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier
  7. P1 8:14Shot by Stecher, saved by McElhinney
  8. P1 8:31Goal by Stecher (Gagner, Zadina)+15 pts WP

    On ice: DET Gagner, Merrill, Namestnikov, Stecher, Zadina · TBL Killorn, McDonagh, Coleman, Gourde, Foote

  9. P1 10:03Shot by Stamkos, saved by Bernier
  10. P1 10:55Goal by Sergachev (Palat, Cirelli)+15 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Helm, Glendening, Erne, Stecher · TBL Palat, Point, Cirelli, Sergachev, Foote

  11. P1 12:12Goal by Larkin (Hronek, Mantha)+16 pts WP

    On ice: DET DeKeyser, Mantha, Larkin, Fabbri, Hronek · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Gourde, Rutta

  12. P1 13:31Shot by Palat, saved by Bernier
  13. P1 13:36Ryan: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Ryan, Staal, Larkin, Stecher, Rasmussen · TBL McDonagh, Palat, Point, Cernak, Cirelli

  14. P1 13:55Goal by Stamkos (Killorn, Palat)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Nemeth, Namestnikov, Glendening · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point

  15. P1 14:13Shot by Johnson, saved by Bernier
  16. P1 14:44Shot by Cirelli, saved by Bernier
  17. P1 14:56Goal by Mantha, unassisted+18 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Merrill, Mantha, Larkin, Fabbri · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Gourde, Rutta

  18. P1 14:56Maroon: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge (2 min)

    On ice: DET Staal, Merrill, Mantha, Larkin, Fabbri · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Gourde, Rutta

  19. P1 15:57Shot by Killorn, saved by Bernier5v4
  20. P1 17:57Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier
  21. P1 17:58Shot by Coleman, saved by Bernier
  22. P1 18:02Shot by McDonagh, saved by Bernier
  23. P1 19:27Shot by Ryan, saved by McElhinney
  24. P1 19:50Shot by McDonagh, saved by Bernier
  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:31Shot by Rasmussen, saved by McElhinney
  28. P2 0:32Shot by Glendening, saved by McElhinney
  29. P2 0:33Goal by Glendening (Rasmussen, Zadina)+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Merrill, Glendening, Rasmussen, Zadina · TBL Johnson, Hedman, Coleman, Goodrow, Rutta

  30. P2 0:39Shot by Hronek, saved by McElhinney
  31. P2 1:31Gourde: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET DeKeyser, Mantha, Larkin, Fabbri, Hronek · TBL Killorn, McDonagh, Stamkos, Gourde, Foote

  32. P2 2:22Shot by Ryan, saved by McElhinney5v4
  33. P2 3:18Shot by Zadina, saved by McElhinney5v4
  34. P2 4:15Shot by Stecher, saved by McElhinney
  35. P2 4:50Goal by Fabbri (Merrill)+7 pts WP

    On ice: DET Staal, Merrill, Namestnikov, Larkin, Fabbri · TBL Maroon, McDonagh, Point, Joseph, Foote

  36. P2 5:54Shot by Cernak, saved by Bernier
  37. P2 6:46Shot by Point, saved by Bernier
  38. P2 7:34Djoos: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Nemeth, Namestnikov, Djoos, Rasmussen, Zadina · TBL Maroon, Joseph, Sergachev, Colton, Foote

  39. P2 7:39Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier4v5
  40. P2 7:51Shot by Stamkos, saved by Bernier4v5
  41. P2 9:08Shot by Hedman, saved by Bernier4v5
  42. P2 9:49Shot by Hronek, saved by McElhinney
  43. P2 10:15Shot by Coleman, saved by Bernier
  44. P2 10:57Fabbri: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Nemeth, Mantha, Larkin, Fabbri, Stecher · TBL Maroon, McDonagh, Cernak, Joseph, Colton

  45. P2 12:07Shot by Point, saved by Bernier4v5
  46. P2 12:27Hronek: Tripping (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Helm, Glendening, DeKeyser, Hronek · TBL Maroon, Johnson, Gourde, Cirelli, Sergachev

  47. P2 12:45Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier3v5
  48. P2 12:55Shot by Hedman, saved by Bernier3v5
  49. P2 13:28Shot by Killorn, saved by Bernier4v5
  50. P2 13:51Shot by Gagner, saved by McElhinney4v5
  51. P2 15:04Shot by Colton, saved by Bernier
  52. P2 15:47Shot by Foote, saved by Bernier
  53. P2 16:07Erne: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, DeKeyser, Erne, Hronek, Zadina · TBL Coleman, Goodrow, Point, Sergachev, Foote

  54. P2 16:07Goodrow: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Namestnikov, DeKeyser, Erne, Hronek, Zadina · TBL Coleman, Goodrow, Point, Sergachev, Foote

  55. P2 16:32Shot by DeKeyser, saved by McElhinney
  56. P2 16:53Shot by Fabbri, saved by McElhinney
  57. P2 18:08Helm: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Helm, Nemeth, Merrill, Glendening, Zadina · TBL Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli, Rutta

  58. P2 19:05Killorn: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Gagner, Namestnikov, DeKeyser, Hronek · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point

  59. P2 19:36Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier4v4
  60. P2 0:00Period end4v4
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 1:20Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier
  63. P3 3:13Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier
  64. P3 4:13Shot by Stamkos, saved by Bernier
  65. P3 5:04Shot by Foote, saved by Bernier
  66. P3 5:09Shot by Foote, saved by Bernier
  67. P3 5:56Shot by Maroon, saved by Bernier
  68. P3 6:27Rasmussen: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Ryan, Staal, Djoos, Mantha, Rasmussen · TBL McDonagh, Johnson, Coleman, Goodrow, Cernak

  69. P3 10:36Shot by Mantha, saved by McElhinney
  70. P3 10:45Shot by Cirelli, saved by Bernier
  71. P3 13:03Coleman: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Ryan, Helm, Merrill, Stecher, Rasmussen · TBL Johnson, Hedman, Coleman, Goodrow, Rutta

  72. P3 13:30Shot by Cernak, saved by Bernier5v4
  73. P3 14:37Shot by Sergachev, saved by Bernier5v4
  74. P3 14:46Shot by Stecher, saved by McElhinney5v4
  75. P3 14:51Shot by Hronek, saved by McElhinney5v4
  76. P3 14:53Shot by Glendening, saved by McElhinney5v4
  77. P3 15:51Goal by Point, unassisted+1 pts WP

    On ice: DET Gagner, Namestnikov, DeKeyser, Hronek, Zadina · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point, Sergachev

  78. P3 15:57Shot by Palat, saved by Bernier
  79. P3 16:18Shot by Hedman, saved by Bernier5v6
  80. P3 17:05Goal by Palat (Point, Stamkos)5v6+7 pts WP

    On ice: DET Helm, Nemeth, Glendening, Larkin, Hronek · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli, Sergachev

  81. P3 17:35Shot by Goodrow, saved by Bernier
  82. P3 17:58Shot by Cernak, saved by Bernier
  83. P3 18:22Shot by Point, saved by Bernier
  84. P3 19:40Goal by Namestnikov (Mantha, Hronek)5v6+3 pts WP

    On ice: DET Gagner, Namestnikov, DeKeyser, Mantha, Hronek · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli, Sergachev

  85. P3 0:00Period end
  86. P3 0:00Final