Mon, Mar 15, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 39 | 17 | 426 |
| TBL | 010 | 013 | 116 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 9:14NSHViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 11:46NSHCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Pekka Rinne · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 10:03TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 19:40NSHMattias EkholmENAssists: Dante Fabbro, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:56TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:56NSHBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:51TBLErik Cernak: Holding2 min
- P1 12:45NSHRyan Johansen: Holding2 min
- P2 0:22NSHColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30TBLYanni Gourde: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03NSHNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:03TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:03NSHMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Arvidsson7:30
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Granlund – Cousins – Arvidsson2:00
xG 0.02–0.03 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen12:34
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Olivier8:04
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Fabbro12:15
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Davies2:30
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Benning – Davies10:42
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli12:05
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov6:53
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Gourde13:11
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow8:31
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta12:11
xG 0.83–0.40 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Sergachev2:54
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:12
xG 0.66–0.47 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).