Fri, May 14, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 111 | 015 | 236 |
| WPG | 010 | 210 | 24 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15TORPierre EngvallAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:13WPGMason AppletonAssists: Dominic Toninato, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 5:25TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Jake Muzzin, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 13:52WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 4:21WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:08WPGJansen HarkinsENAssists: Trevor Lewis, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:54TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P2 16:23WPGTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:26WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev11:27
xG 0.91–0.57 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
- Thornton – Spezza – Simmonds9:17
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Brooks – Matthews9:34
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Tavares – Nylander10:33
xG 0.13–0.59 (18%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:38
xG 1.29–0.50 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Hutton – Dermott14:37
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly18:07
xG 0.44–1.08 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 0–3
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:15
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Stastny – Perreault – Dubois6:06
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Appleton2:02
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Harkins11:01
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Pionk17:46
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:23
xG 0.59–0.60 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Stanley16:20
xG 0.67–1.26 (35%)attempts 12–18goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).