Sat, Oct 30, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 18 | 313 | 431 |
| TOR | 114 | 116 | 38 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:46TORJake MuzzinAssists: TJ Brodie, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 8:19DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:42TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Nick Ritchie · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 0:17TORAlexander KerfootAssists: John Tavares, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 1:36DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 7:47TORJohn TavaresAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 10:11DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Joseph Veleno, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 17:55TORMitch MarnerGWGUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 19:31DETFilip HronekAssists: Lucas Raymond, Filip Zadina · Slap, 0.04 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:49TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:01DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:28TORTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P3 19:47DETRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Fabbri – Raymond12:56
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Suter – Zadina2:05
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Rasmussen – Veleno7:02
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Rowney – Suter – Zadina3:10
xG 0.03–0.21 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Oesterle13:12
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- DeKeyser – Seider13:44
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Leddy – Hronek16:19
xG 0.18–1.25 (12%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews12:12
xG 1.25–0.58 (68%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner12:48
xG 0.68–0.08 (90%)attempts 15–8goals 4–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Ritchie8:30
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kase – Kampf10:39
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin11:19
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Brodie16:02
xG 0.85–0.51 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Rielly – Dermott14:17
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 19–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).