Thu, Mar 17, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 08 | 214 | 236 |
| TOR | 16 | 16 | 19 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:39TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 4:09CAREthan BearAssists: Jesper Fast, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:20TOROndrej KaseGWGAssists: William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 19:56CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:44TORIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P1 17:32TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:19CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:11TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast9:57
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Martinook – Necas8:43
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Svechnikov2:54
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi6:34
xG 0.25–0.38 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear14:28
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 23–9goals 1–2
- Skjei – Pesce17:39
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Cole – Smith11:43
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Kampf – Mikheyev8:22
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Tavares – Bunting – Marner9:36
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Spezza – Clifford – Robertson5:14
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Kase7:13
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin16:21
xG 0.81–0.55 (59%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Brodie – Holl16:23
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin11:03
xG 0.17–0.53 (25%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).