Tue, Mar 22, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 19 | 110 | 229 |
| CAR | 07 | 220 | 114 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:56CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Ethan Bear, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 9:39TBLNick PaulAssists: Ross Colton · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:55CARTony DeAngeloPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 8:07CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:00TBLAlex KillornAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:38CARTony DeAngelo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:15TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:39TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47CARIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:47TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:47CARIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 1:01TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
- P3 17:19TBLMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:19CARJordan Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:34TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Cirelli – Colton5:41
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Palat – Point – Hagel8:31
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point3:07
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:51
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Rutta14:33
xG 0.75–1.03 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Cernak – Sergachev10:42
xG 0.61–0.88 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Bogosian11:25
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Fast10:27
xG 1.06–0.58 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis11:30
xG 0.80–0.55 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Stepan – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi6:00
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov12:33
xG 0.20–0.94 (18%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo14:47
xG 1.21–0.63 (66%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Cole – Bear11:08
xG 0.97–0.53 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:31
xG 0.92–1.37 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).