Tue, Mar 29, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 14 | 210 | 05 | 00 | 319 |
| TBL | 010 | 29 | 112 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Jordan Staal, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 0:52TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 8:41CARSeth JarvisAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:43TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:47CARSebastian AhoAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Seth Jarvis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 6:02TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–3
- OT 0:52TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:23CARTony DeAngelo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:16TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00CARIan Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:00TBLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:00CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:21TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
- P3 5:18CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:02TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:02CARTony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:26CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast12:07
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Stepan – Domi – Lorentz6:05
xG 0.02–0.24 (6%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Necas – Svechnikov10:19
xG 0.35–0.61 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis11:14
xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Cole – Smith12:21
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo15:37
xG 0.50–0.74 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:54
xG 0.32–1.00 (24%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point14:43
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare11:20
xG 0.45–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli8:55
xG 0.32–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Paul – Colton – Hagel8:49
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta16:08
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev17:12
xG 0.97–0.67 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Foote11:31
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).