Tue, Oct 18, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 110 | 28 | 324 |
| TBL | 010 | 217 | 011 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:25TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 4:12TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 10:43PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Egor Zamula, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 1:06PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 12:44PHINoah CatesGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:04TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:04PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14TBLIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:00PHITravis Konecny: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:31TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:31PHIJustin Braun: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 2:31PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:25TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:34PHIZack MacEwen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Laughton – Konecny3:33
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Laughton – Allison – Frost3:55
xG 0.23–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – MacEwen – Frost2:21
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laczynski – Frost2:54
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Zamula10:46
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Braun – Sanheim14:30
xG 0.52–0.97 (35%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Provorov17:43
xG 0.45–1.27 (26%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel13:23
xG 1.00–0.71 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul11:39
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bellemare – Koepke5:19
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton6:14
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak13:04
xG 1.04–0.38 (73%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Cernak2:34
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Foote8:59
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).