Thu, Oct 20, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Buffalo Sabres 6, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 312 | 114 | 26 | 632 |
| CGY | 116 | 110 | 117 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:34BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jacob Bryson, Vinnie Hinostroza · Poke, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 10:49BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: JJ Peterka, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 13:10BUFCasey MittelstadtSHAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Owen Power · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 0:46BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Owen Power, Jacob Bryson · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 19:57CGYTrevor LewisAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 1:09CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 5:41BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 18:35BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.59 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:20CGYBrett Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:37BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:01CGYChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:51CGYNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:54CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:44CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Cozens – Peterka8:21
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt8:33
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:21
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:37
xG 0.42–1.06 (29%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin11:31
xG 0.72–0.38 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Bryson – Dahlin3:49
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Power2:45
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Toffoli – Huberdeau2:47
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman6:33
xG 0.50–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube5:27
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Coleman – Mangiapane3:45
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Weegar2:56
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Stone – Zadorov2:33
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Mackey7:46
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).