Thu, Jan 12, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Ottawa Senators 5, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 215 | 118 | 214 | 547 |
| ARI | 08 | 111 | 210 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:49OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Bat, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 14:45OTTDerick BrassardPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Poke, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 8:45ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Christian Fischer, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 17:41OTTAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 3:45ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 9:42OTTMark KastelicGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 17:16ARIBarrett HaytonAssists: Nick Ritchie, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:15OTTArtem ZubENAssists: Nick Holden, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:19ARIClayton Keller: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P1 11:19ARIClayton Keller: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 14:45ARITravis Boyd: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 17:57ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:57OTTParker Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:57OTTParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:35ARIJ.J. Moser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:54OTTDrake Batherson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:15ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Tkachuk – Stützle10:46
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Brassard – Watson – Kastelic10:06
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Gambrell – Kelly – Lucchini8:22
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Pinto10:42
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub17:08
xG 1.90–0.57 (77%)attempts 26–24goals 2–1
- Holden – Brannstrom12:28
xG 0.67–0.30 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson14:39
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Schmaltz – Hayton9:20
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Boyd – Ritchie – Fischer2:51
xG 0.01–0.12 (6%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Boyd – Fischer – McBain8:13
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton2:07
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stecher – Välimäki3:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun15:31
xG 0.72–0.81 (47%)attempts 27–17goals 1–2
- Brown – Välimäki5:06
xG 0.10–0.65 (13%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).