Mon, Jan 16, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 114 | 115 | 25 | 434 |
| BUF | 08 | 08 | 113 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01FLABrandon MontourAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 8:04FLASam BennettGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 0:34FLAAnton LundellAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 11:27BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 18:22FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:00BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:40BUFAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:53FLANick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:19FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:31BUFJack Quinn: Holding2 min
- P3 19:16FLARyan Lomberg: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk13:05
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Staal – Lomberg – Smith7:53
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Cousins – Luostarinen – Denisenko6:59
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Lundell12:35
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura11:13
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:40
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 9–19goals 2–1
- Staal – Montour15:14
xG 0.50–0.73 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Asplund4:48
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka9:05
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt11:12
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson7:52
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin8:37
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Samuelsson – Power3:03
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin9:01
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).