Wed, Feb 1, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 317 | 012 | 25 | 534 |
| BUF | 19 | 08 | 013 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:05CARStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 12:47CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P1 14:45BUFAlex TuchAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 10:30CARDerek StepanAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jalen Chatfield · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 18:19CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:23BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57BUFTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:14CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min
- P3 0:46CARBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:31CARBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:42CARJalen Chatfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:10
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen6:45
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov7:29
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook13:49
xG 0.35–0.84 (30%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Chatfield16:52
xG 1.06–0.72 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:26
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- de Haan – Coghlan13:16
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:55
xG 0.41–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Cozens2:09
xG 0.33–0.13 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Peterka2:08
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka4:50
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Dahlin5:09
xG 0.49–0.08 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin3:47
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power5:11
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).