Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 12 | 313 | 17 | 11 | 623 |
| TBL | 19 | 110 | 318 | 04 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:41BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tyson Jost · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:36BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 12:20BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 12:36TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Patrick Maroon, Nick Paul · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 13:25BUFJack QuinnAssists: Peyton Krebs, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 5:48TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 6:18BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
- P3 8:33TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Erik Cernak, Brayden Point · Poke, 0.16 xG5–4
- P3 14:54TBLRoss ColtonPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.11 xG5–5
- OT 1:41BUFIlya LyubushkinSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.00 xG6–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:24TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:26BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:51TBLNick Paul: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:45BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 19:52BUFHenri Jokiharju: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Cozens2:16
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost10:28
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn7:18
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka5:39
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Power17:43
xG 0.75–0.90 (45%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin7:56
xG 0.04–0.41 (9%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin19:20
xG 1.02–1.50 (40%)attempts 18–22goals 2–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Paul – Colton9:37
xG 0.80–0.22 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel7:30
xG 0.83–0.44 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point7:19
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Perry – Namestnikov – Bellemare8:09
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Fleury4:53
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev7:08
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hedman – Cernak3:28
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).