Thu, Feb 23, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 84% of the time.
79%
11%
TBL winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Skinner–Tuch–Thompson | Okposo–Girgensons–Jost | Mittelstadt–Krebs–Quinn | Olofsson–Cozens–Peterka | Olofsson–Mittelstadt–Cozens | Cozens–Quinn–Peterka | Girgensons–Jost–Quinn | Okposo–Girgensons–Krebs | Mittelstadt–Krebs–Cozens | Samuelsson–Dahlin | Jokiharju–Power | Bryson–Lyubushkin | Jokiharju–Dahlin | Samuelsson–Power | Bryson–Power | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maroon–Paul–Colton | 1:270.14–0.00 | 2:030.00–0.00 | 1:550.36–0.08 | 1:060.24–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.02 | 0:460.00–0.07 | 1:550.25–0.05 | 2:490.33–0.14 | 3:210.22–0.03 | 0:310.00–0.00 | |||||
| Perry–Namestnikov–Bellemare | 1:130.00–0.00 | 2:280.05–0.00 | 1:260.10–0.00 | 0:420.00–0.15 | 1:340.02–0.15 | 3:450.15–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.00 | ||||||||
| Kucherov–Point–Hagel | 2:340.60–0.17 | 1:020.08–0.00 | 0:320.08–0.00 | 3:510.69–0.28 | 3:350.15–0.15 | ||||||||||
| Stamkos–Kucherov–Point | 0:570.03–0.12 | 2:410.14–0.15 | 1:300.04–0.00 | 3:020.13–0.26 | 1:400.05–0.02 | 1:230.08–0.02 | |||||||||
| Killorn–Cirelli–Hagel | 3:040.19–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.12 | 0:380.00–0.11 | 3:150.19–0.14 | 1:200.00–0.15 | 1:200.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Killorn–Stamkos–Cirelli | 1:450.00–0.04 | 1:390.03–0.10 | 1:230.07–0.08 | 3:310.03–0.14 | 0:460.04–0.10 | 0:520.03–0.08 | |||||||||
| Hedman–Perbix | 0:390.00–0.00 | 2:140.06–0.05 | 2:110.04–0.00 | 1:340.22–0.07 | 0:460.00–0.07 | 3:570.12–0.05 | 3:110.13–0.15 | 0:380.09–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Cernak–Sergachev | 4:210.51–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.12 | 3:410.51–0.00 | 1:530.00–0.15 | 1:250.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Hedman–Sergachev | 1:080.47–0.17 | 1:230.00–0.05 | 1:170.16–0.08 | 0:330.00–0.14 | 3:190.50–0.28 | 2:020.13–0.18 | |||||||||
| Cole–Cernak | 2:590.08–0.12 | 0:410.08–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.01 | 0:330.00–0.15 | 1:560.00–0.15 | 0:590.00–0.00 | 1:090.00–0.01 | 0:410.08–0.00 | |||||||
| Fleury–Sergachev | 0:560.00–0.00 | 1:190.04–0.00 | 0:380.18–0.00 | 0:550.00–0.02 | 1:060.18–0.05 | 2:050.04–0.02 | 0:530.00–0.02 | 0:380.00–0.00 | |||||||
| Cole–Fleury | 0:310.00–0.00 | 2:140.37–0.14 | 0:380.19–0.00 | 2:310.37–0.14 | 1:280.19–0.01 | ||||||||||
| Sergachev–Perbix | 1:300.08–0.08 | 2:490.08–0.44 | |||||||||||||
| Hedman–Cernak | 1:290.06–0.04 | 0:440.00–0.04 | 2:030.16–0.00 | ||||||||||||
| Hedman–Fleury | 1:350.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Cole–Hedman | 0:580.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Cole–Perbix | 0:380.03–0.10 | 0:320.03–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Cole–Sergachev | 0:340.13–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Fleury–Cernak | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:300.06–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 31 | 27:03 | 0:52 | 1:50 | 3 | 3 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 27 | 26:03 | 0:58 | 1:40 | 3 | 3 |
 Mikhail SergachevTBL | 29 | 25:48 | 0:53 | 2:01 | 5 | 1 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 30 | 25:04 | 0:50 | 1:40 | 3 | 2 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 28 | 24:31 | 0:53 | 2:05 | 2 | 4 |
 Henri JokiharjuBUF | 24 | 21:54 | 0:55 | 2:08 | 2 | 3 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 23 | 21:36 | 0:56 | 2:27 | 5 | 0 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 21 | 20:27 | 0:58 | 1:54 | 3 | 0 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 25 | 19:34 | 0:47 | 1:35 | 1 | 3 |
 Steven StamkosTBL | 21 | 19:22 | 0:55 | 1:41 | 5 | 1 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 27 | 19:03 | 0:42 | 1:48 | 2 | 4 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 22 | 18:54 | 0:52 | 1:56 | 3 | 3 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 20 | 18:36 | 0:56 | 2:17 | 3 | 0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsBUF | 22 | 17:45 | 0:48 | 2:05 | 2 | 3 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 22 | 17:16 | 0:47 | 1:49 | 2 | 0 |
 Ian ColeTBL | 20 | 16:51 | 0:51 | 1:43 | 0 | 2 |
 Alex KillornTBL | 17 | 16:46 | 0:59 | 2:01 | 4 | 1 |
 Jeff SkinnerBUF | 23 | 16:46 | 0:44 | 1:56 | 3 | 0 |
 Kyle OkposoBUF | 20 | 15:25 | 0:46 | 1:37 | 2 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 24 | 15:21 | 0:38 | 1:41 | 5 | 3 |
 Nick PerbixTBL | 21 | 15:15 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 3 | 1 |
 Dylan CozensBUF | 20 | 15:07 | 0:45 | 1:23 | 1 | 2 |
 Tyson JostBUF | 17 | 14:25 | 0:51 | 1:40 | 2 | 3 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 20 | 14:02 | 0:42 | 1:10 | 1 | 2 |
 Casey MittelstadtBUF | 20 | 13:16 | 0:40 | 1:04 | 5 | 2 |
 Ross ColtonTBL | 20 | 13:15 | 0:40 | 1:15 | 2 | 1 |
 Haydn FleuryTBL | 19 | 13:13 | 0:42 | 1:13 | 0 | 2 |
 Victor OlofssonBUF | 18 | 13:04 | 0:44 | 1:37 | 3 | 1 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 17 | 12:57 | 0:46 | 1:21 | 4 | 1 |
 Ilya LyubushkinBUF | 17 | 12:26 | 0:44 | 1:12 | 0 | 3 |
 Corey PerryTBL | 12 | 11:48 | 0:59 | 1:31 | 1 | 4 |
 Patrick MaroonTBL | 16 | 11:15 | 0:42 | 1:02 | 0 | 2 |
 Pierre-Edouard BellemareTBL | 14 | 10:43 | 0:46 | 1:27 | 1 | 4 |
 Vladislav NamestnikovTBL | 12 | 10:31 | 0:53 | 1:19 | 0 | 4 |
 Jacob BrysonBUF | 13 | 10:12 | 0:47 | 1:31 | 0 | 0 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 13 | 10:11 | 0:47 | 1:35 | 0 | 0 |