Sun, Feb 26, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 4, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 28 | 011 | 430 |
| BUF | 210 | 417 | 110 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40BUFDylan CozensAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Ilya Lyubushkin · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:45WSHDylan StromeAssists: Nick Jensen, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 16:35BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 16:50WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dylan Strome, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:49BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Jack Quinn · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 8:36BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 10:07BUFVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Owen Power, Dylan Cozens · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P2 12:49BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–6
- P2 15:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–6
- P2 18:40WSHSonny MilanoPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–6
- P3 11:52BUFDylan CozensAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Casey Mittelstadt · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P2 16:32WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:32WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:32BUFJack Quinn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:00BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09WSHNick Jensen: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:02WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:26BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Dowd – Aube-Kubel9:16
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Oshie – Milano – Strome11:35
xG 0.78–0.70 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Backstrom – Smith – Sheary10:09
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:47
xG 0.64–1.18 (35%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Fehérváry20:00
xG 1.16–1.37 (46%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk18:19
xG 0.75–1.06 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
- Irwin – McIlrath10:11
xG 0.25–0.86 (23%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Mittelstadt – Cozens10:24
xG 1.09–0.46 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- Skinner – Thompson – Quinn11:09
xG 0.77–0.64 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Krebs – Peterka9:35
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost11:00
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power15:40
xG 1.34–0.61 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Clague – Samuelsson9:19
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson2:31
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).