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Thu, Mar 9, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Vegas Golden Knights 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)

Away

Vegas Golden Knights

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.

TBL winsVGK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
VGK14052913421
TBL1100921701337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:27VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Teddy Blueger, Brett Howden · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:28TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:27VGKWilliam KarlssonSHAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:39VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
  5. P3 17:53TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:32TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
  7. OT 3:09VGKAlec MartinezGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.58 xG4–3
Penalties (29)
  1. P1 16:08VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 14:38TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 14:38VGKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 14:38VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 19:38VGKShea Theodore: High sticking double minor4 min
  6. P2 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 4:44TBLMichael Eyssimont: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 12:16TBLPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 12:16TBLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 12:16VGKKeegan Kolesar: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 12:16TBLZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 12:16VGKKeegan Kolesar: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 12:16TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 12:16VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 12:16TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 12:16VGKBrett Howden: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 12:16TBLHaydn Fleury: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 12:16TBLHaydn Fleury: Misconduct10 min
  19. P3 12:16VGKTeddy Blueger: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 12:16VGKTeddy Blueger: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 12:16TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 12:16TBLCorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 12:16VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
  24. P3 12:16VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
  25. P3 12:16VGKNicolas Hague: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 12:16TBLMichael Eyssimont: Misconduct10 min
  27. P3 12:16TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
  28. P3 12:16VGKZach Whitecloud: Misconduct10 min
  29. P3 19:14VGKChandler Stephenson: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VGK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
49% to win51% to win
← VGK attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eyssimont won the faceoff against Blueger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VGKTBL
21Shots on goal37
2.7Expected goals3.7
38Shot attempts73
24Faceoffs won22
2Power plays5
75Penalty minutes71
33Hits36
18Blocked shots10
3Giveaways8
10Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. Kessel – Smith – Stephenson2:53

    xG 0.03–0.04 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  2. Kessel – Amadio – Cotter2:51

    xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0

  3. Smith – Karlsson – Stephenson10:26

    xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

  4. Blueger – Kolesar – Howden10:06

    xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. McNabb – Theodore14:04

    xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0

  2. Theodore – Whitecloud2:34

    xG 0.02–0.26 (7%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0

  3. Hague – Whitecloud12:02

    xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point11:08

    xG 1.02–0.23 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0

  2. Perry – Maroon – Eyssimont7:16

    xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0

  3. Paul – Colton – Jeannot9:12

    xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

  4. Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel9:36

    xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSergachev – Perbix14:23

    xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0

  2. Bogosian – Fleury10:49

    xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1

  3. Cole – Cernak14:40

    xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.7 xGVGK 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLVGK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #239 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.10 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 44% (winner's lowest chance)
VGK 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +50 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.

TBL winsVGK wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).