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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
TOR1921117024529
OTT119118212033452

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:11TORJake McCabeAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:28OTTJulien GauthierAssists: Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:32OTTTim StützleSHAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:09TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 9:16TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 9:39TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Auston Matthews, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
  7. P3 10:42OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:49OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. OTT Alex DeBrincat scored
  2. 2. TOR William Nylander scored
  3. 3. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
  4. 4. TOR Auston Matthews scored
  5. 5. OTT Drake Batherson scored
  6. 6. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
  7. 7. OTT Claude Giroux stopped
  8. 8. TOR Calle Jarnkrok stopped
  9. 9. OTT Brady Tkachuk stopped
  10. 10. TOR John Tavares stopped
  11. 11. OTT Shane Pinto stopped
  12. 12. TOR Morgan Rielly stopped
  13. 13. OTT Derick Brassard scored
  14. 14. TOR Michael Bunting scored
  15. 15. OTT Thomas Chabot stopped
  16. 16. TOR Bobby McMann stopped
  17. 17. OTT Jakob Chychrun stopped
  18. 18. TOR Alexander Kerfoot scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 4:30OTTRidly Greig: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 10:01TORTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
  3. P2 11:57OTTJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 12:38TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 19:14TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
49% to win51% to win
← TOR attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Matthews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TOROTT
29Shots on goal52
3.2Expected goals5.6
51Shot attempts93
30Faceoffs won35
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
25Hits34
20Blocked shots16
15Giveaways12
1Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestJarnkrok – Kerfoot – Matthews9:52

    xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0

  2. Nylander – Lafferty – McMann5:39

    xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0

  3. Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf2:23

    xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0

  4. Tavares – Bunting – Marner10:10

    xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. McCabe – Liljegren16:47

    xG 0.87–0.96 (48%)attempts 14–21goals 2–0

  2. Schenn – Rielly11:26

    xG 0.32–0.79 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0

  3. Brodie – Holl16:17

    xG 0.28–1.40 (17%)attempts 11–31goals 0–2

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestBrassard – Gauthier – Pinto8:25

    xG 1.16–0.35 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0

  2. Giroux – DeBrincat – Greig10:08

    xG 0.88–0.24 (79%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1

  3. Watson – Brown – Gambrell5:03

    xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  4. Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle14:27

    xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamonic – Chychrun15:33

    xG 1.26–0.62 (67%)attempts 23–14goals 1–1

  2. Chabot – Brannstrom14:27

    xG 1.46–0.91 (62%)attempts 26–16goals 1–1

  3. Sanderson – Zub13:52

    xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 5.6 xGTOR 3.2 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 97/100 · #65 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.71 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +50 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).