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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 18, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.

OTT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:29Shot by Gauthier, saved by Murray
  3. P1 1:46Shot by Pinto, saved by Murray
  4. P1 1:47Shot by Pinto, saved by Murray
  5. P1 2:42Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murray
  6. P1 2:56Shot by Batherson, saved by Murray
  7. P1 3:08Shot by Marner, saved by Sogaard
  8. P1 3:11Goal by McCabe (Marner, Tavares)+13 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Hamonic, DeBrincat, Chychrun, Greig · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Bunting, Marner, Liljegren

  9. P1 3:24Shot by Batherson, saved by Murray
  10. P1 3:36Shot by McCabe, saved by Sogaard
  11. P1 4:04Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Sogaard
  12. P1 5:01Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray
  13. P1 5:15Shot by Brannstrom, saved by Murray
  14. P1 6:43Shot by Bunting, saved by Sogaard
  15. P1 7:30Shot by Chychrun, saved by Murray
  16. P1 7:47Shot by Nylander, saved by Sogaard
  17. P1 8:11Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Murray
  18. P1 10:45Shot by Matthews, saved by Sogaard
  19. P1 13:18Shot by Liljegren, saved by Sogaard
  20. P1 13:57Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murray
  21. P1 14:21Shot by Chychrun, saved by Murray
  22. P1 14:28Goal by Gauthier (Pinto, Brannstrom)+17 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Brassard, Chabot, Gauthier, Brannstrom, Pinto · TOR Brodie, Holl, Nylander, Aston-Reese, Kampf

  23. P1 16:53Shot by Chychrun, saved by Murray
  24. P1 17:08Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray
  25. P1 17:13Shot by Brannstrom, saved by Murray
  26. P1 17:40Shot by Pinto, saved by Murray
  27. P1 17:41Shot by Pinto, saved by Murray
  28. P1 17:58Shot by Brannstrom, saved by Murray
  29. P1 18:34Shot by Marner, saved by Sogaard
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:25Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murray
  33. P2 1:08Shot by Sanderson, saved by Murray
  34. P2 2:15Shot by Pinto, saved by Murray
  35. P2 3:34Shot by Watson, saved by Murray
  36. P2 3:37Shot by Gambrell, saved by Murray
  37. P2 4:30Greig: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Giroux, DeBrincat, Greig, Sanderson, Zub · TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Holl, Kerfoot, Matthews

  38. P2 4:52Shot by Hamonic, saved by Murray4v5
  39. P2 5:32Goal by Stützle (Hamonic)4v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Brannstrom, Sanderson, Stützle · TOR Jarnkrok, Kerfoot, Lafferty, Bunting, Liljegren

  40. P2 6:09Goal by Marner (Rielly, Tavares)4v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Watson, Gambrell, Brannstrom, Zub · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  41. P2 6:30Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murray
  42. P2 6:36Shot by Hamonic, saved by Murray
  43. P2 6:37Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray
  44. P2 6:41Shot by Hamonic, saved by Murray
  45. P2 7:01Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray
  46. P2 7:36Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray
  47. P2 8:05Shot by Pinto, saved by Murray
  48. P2 8:16Shot by Rielly, saved by Sogaard
  49. P2 8:37Shot by Matthews, saved by Sogaard
  50. P2 8:40Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Sogaard
  51. P2 9:16Goal by Jarnkrok (Matthews, Liljegren)+22 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Batherson, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Stützle, Zub · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Kerfoot, Matthews, Liljegren

  52. P2 10:01Liljegren: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Watson, Brown, Chabot, Gambrell, Brannstrom · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bunting, Marner, Liljegren

  53. P2 11:06Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murray5v4
  54. P2 11:57Chychrun: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Brassard, Chabot, Chychrun, Pinto · TOR Schenn, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Kampf

  55. P2 13:35Shot by Bunting, saved by Sogaard4v5
  56. P2 13:36Shot by Bunting, saved by Sogaard4v5
  57. P2 13:37Shot by Nylander, saved by Sogaard4v5
  58. P2 14:15Shot by Liljegren, saved by Sogaard
  59. P2 14:16Shot by Kampf, saved by Sogaard
  60. P2 15:51Shot by Zub, saved by Murray
  61. P2 16:41Shot by McMann, saved by Sogaard
  62. P2 19:10Shot by Batherson, saved by Murray
  63. P2 19:20Shot by Chychrun, saved by Murray
  64. P2 0:00Period end
  65. P3 0:00Period start
  66. P3 2:23Shot by Lafferty, saved by Sogaard
  67. P3 4:52Shot by Rielly, saved by Sogaard
  68. P3 4:58Shot by Brodie, saved by Sogaard
  69. P3 6:01Shot by Gambrell, saved by Murray
  70. P3 6:11Shot by Gambrell, saved by Murray
  71. P3 7:50Shot by Greig, saved by Murray
  72. P3 8:51Shot by Brannstrom, saved by Murray
  73. P3 9:23Shot by Brannstrom, saved by Murray
  74. P3 9:39Goal by Jarnkrok (Matthews, Kerfoot)+14 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Chabot, Brannstrom, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle · TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, McCabe, Kerfoot, Matthews

  75. P3 10:18Shot by Brown, saved by Murray
  76. P3 10:26Shot by Marner, saved by Sogaard
  77. P3 10:42Goal by Tkachuk (Stützle, Hamonic)+13 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Hamonic, Chychrun, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Marner

  78. P3 12:38Holl: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Chabot, Brannstrom, Batherson, Tkachuk, Sanderson · TOR Brodie, Holl, Nylander, Lafferty, Marner

  79. P3 12:43Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray5v4
  80. P3 13:17Shot by Kampf, saved by Sogaard5v4
  81. P3 13:26Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Sogaard5v4
  82. P3 13:42Shot by Batherson, saved by Murray5v4
  83. P3 17:39Shot by Stützle, saved by Murray
  84. P3 17:48Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murray6v5
  85. P3 19:14Brodie: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Pinto, Stützle · TOR Brodie, Holl, Lafferty, Matthews, Kampf

  86. P3 19:49Goal by Tkachuk (Giroux, Chabot)6v4+50 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Giroux, Chabot, DeBrincat, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle · TOR Holl, McCabe, Marner, Kampf

  87. P3 0:00Period end
  88. OT 0:00Period start
  89. OT 1:43Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray3v3
  90. OT 2:00Shot by Matthews, saved by Sogaard3v3
  91. OT 2:01Shot by Matthews, saved by Sogaard3v3
  92. OT 2:09Shot by Stützle, saved by Murray3v3
  93. OT 3:14Shot by Giroux, saved by Murray3v3
  94. OT 5:00Period endother
  95. SO Period start
  96. SO Goal by DeBrincat, unassistedother
  97. SO Goal by Nylander, unassistedother
  98. SO Shot by Stützle, saved by Murrayother
  99. SO Goal by Matthews, unassistedother
  100. SO Goal by Batherson, unassistedother
  101. SO Shot by Marner, saved by Sogaardother
  102. SO Shot by Giroux, saved by Murrayother
  103. SO Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Sogaardother
  104. SO Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Murrayother
  105. SO Shot by Tavares, saved by Sogaardother
  106. SO Shot by Pinto, saved by Murrayother
  107. SO Shot by Rielly, saved by Sogaardother
  108. SO Goal by Brassard, unassistedother
  109. SO Goal by Bunting, unassistedother
  110. SO Shot by Chabot, saved by Murrayother
  111. SO Shot by McMann, saved by Sogaardother
  112. SO Shot by Chychrun, saved by Murrayother
  113. SO Goal by Kerfoot, unassistedother
  114. SO Period endother
  115. SO Final