Tue, Mar 21, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 7, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 48 | 17 | 727 |
| BUF | 05 | 214 | 112 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:43NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Philip Tomasino, Jeremy Lauzon · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 3:36BUFDylan CozensAssists: JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 4:00NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 9:21NSHLuke EvangelistaGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Juuse Saros · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 10:01NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–1
- P2 15:52NSHRyan McDonaghAssists: Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.06 xG6–1
- P2 17:17BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.10 xG6–2
- P3 7:45BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–3
- P3 17:37NSHMatt DucheneENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.53 xG7–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:54NSHRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:42BUFTage Thompson: Holding2 min
- P2 1:14NSHMark Jankowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:02NSHKiefer Sherwood: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:02BUFTage Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:19BUFCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:46NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:03NSHColton Sissons: Throwing equipment2 min
- P3 4:31BUFHenri Jokiharju: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Sherwood – Evangelista8:06
xG 0.89–0.15 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 4–0
- Duchene – Glass – Tomasino7:33
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith10:08
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Asplund – Afanasyev8:38
xG 0.09–0.54 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Fabbro13:04
xG 0.98–0.52 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Foote14:39
xG 0.99–0.85 (54%)attempts 12–18goals 4–1
- Barrie – Gross13:08
xG 0.35–1.16 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt10:04
xG 0.70–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka10:19
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:46
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 1–3
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:22
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin14:29
xG 1.27–0.57 (69%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Stillman – Lyubushkin3:26
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Clague – Power3:34
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).