Thu, Mar 23, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 115 | 14 | 229 |
| OTT | 213 | 18 | 414 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:37OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 10:28TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 18:04OTTDerick BrassardPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 4:10TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 5:45OTTErik BrannstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 13:11OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
- P3 13:35OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.78 xG2–6
- P3 14:39OTTAustin WatsonAssists: Patrick Brown · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:26OTTErik Brannstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 4:29OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:59TBLNick Perbix: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:32TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:09TBLTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:35OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:24OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:26TBLBrandon Hagel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 11:26OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Eyssimont – Jeannot6:40
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel12:16
xG 0.80–0.70 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Maroon – Paul – Colton8:42
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli8:16
xG 0.31–0.64 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Bogosian10:37
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 1–3
- Cole – Perbix2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix14:23
xG 0.51–0.66 (44%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto11:28
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:36
xG 0.88–0.77 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic5:26
xG 0.16–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Brassard – Gambrell – Greig8:31
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub3:34
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Zub2:28
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Chabot – Chychrun13:52
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).