Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 211 | 17 | 424 |
| OTT | 28 | 214 | 318 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Alex DeBrincat · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:51TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 10:57OTTJulien GauthierAssists: Dylan Gambrell, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 6:21OTTPatrick BrownAssists: Mark Kastelic, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 13:38TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.30 xG2–3
- P2 14:06TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 19:43OTTAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Shane Pinto, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.82 xG3–4
- P3 2:07OTTEgor SokolovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–5
- P3 6:01TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.26 xG4–5
- P3 10:49OTTMark KastelicAssists: Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 19:41OTTClaude GirouxENAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.71 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:23OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:49TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:17OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:05OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28TBLIan Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:32TBLMichael Eyssimont: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:49TBLIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 10:49TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:56OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:08OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Hagel3:37
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Paul – Eyssimont3:22
xG 0.01–0.03 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Cirelli3:40
xG 0.24–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare4:34
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Perbix11:33
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Cole – Perbix2:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Cernak2:01
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Joseph – Kastelic5:29
xG 0.81–0.34 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Gambrell – Sokolov4:20
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto10:43
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle11:12
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:55
xG 1.24–0.36 (77%)attempts 18–9goals 3–0
- Holden – Brannstrom13:17
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven9:42
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).