Wed, Oct 11, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 115 | 114 | 18 | 337 |
| CGY | 28 | 16 | 28 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:29CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:48WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Dylan Samberg, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 17:50CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Walker Duehr · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 11:19WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Adam Lowry · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 13:49CGYRasmus AnderssonSHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 14:18WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 18:28CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 19:53CGYAndrew MangiapaneENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:20CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P1 8:53WPGDylan Samberg: Interference2 min
- P1 11:03WPGJosh Morrissey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 0:50CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:19WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:35CGYDillon Dube: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:18CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:34
xG 1.09–0.12 (90%)attempts 15–3goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Ehlers – Perfetti8:16
xG 0.66–0.11 (86%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Barron – Kupari5:25
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Lowry – Appleton – Iafallo7:34
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk11:47
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:35
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 3–0
- Dillon – Schmidt10:24
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane6:17
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane4:59
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Dube5:17
xG 0.04–0.00 (91%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Greer – Ruzicka – Duehr4:49
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin2:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tanev – Oesterle11:54
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
- Weegar – Zadorov13:44
xG 0.15–0.82 (16%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).