Tue, Dec 5, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 212 | 16 | 527 |
| BUF | 011 | 17 | 214 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 8:25DETRobby FabbriAssists: Andrew Copp, David Perron · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 5:43DETMoritz SeiderPPAssists: Robby Fabbri, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 13:55DETMichael RasmussenGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
- P2 18:57BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 8:20BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jeff Skinner, JJ Peterka · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 11:37BUFJeff SkinnerPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:14DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:09DETShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:23DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:54BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:29BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
- P2 18:52DETAndrew Copp: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:41BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:47DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:09DETJake Walman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Veleno – Raymond9:48
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Fischer – Sprong – Kostin5:38
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Fabbri6:17
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Compher – DeBrincat – Rasmussen8:50
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider12:31
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere11:22
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:03
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Biro – Rosen6:25
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Mittelstadt – Peterka3:00
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Thompson – Cozens – Benson3:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson7:31
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Clifton7:35
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin3:03
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power15:33
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).