Mon, Dec 11, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 110 | 18 | 223 |
| BUF | 113 | 315 | 110 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:25BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Eric Robinson, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 3:01ARIMichael KesselringAssists: Logan Cooley, Milos Kelemen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:14BUFEric RobinsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 10:52BUFPeyton KrebsGWGAssists: Kyle Okposo, Eric Robinson · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 15:06BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 12:47ARIMichael CarconeSHAssists: Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 18:55BUFRasmus DahlinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:23BUFZach Benson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:47BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:43BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:14ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:06ARILogan Cooley: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli12:00
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Zucker – Schmaltz – Keller13:30
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Cooley4:36
xG 0.05–0.31 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Cooley – Kelemen7:00
xG 0.10–0.52 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Kesselring4:21
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stecher – Välimäki9:32
xG 0.22–0.30 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Dumba – Moser14:12
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Robinson – Krebs9:18
xG 1.18–0.47 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 3–0
- Thompson – Cozens – Benson8:40
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Mittelstadt – Peterka8:42
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson3:25
xG 0.17–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Clifton11:25
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Power15:42
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin16:41
xG 0.85–0.52 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).