Thu, Dec 21, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 012 | 213 | 434 |
| TBL | 011 | 413 | 112 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Paul Cotter, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:58VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 8:25TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Victor Hedman, Conor Sheary · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 15:55TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 16:28TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nick Paul, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 18:50TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nick Paul, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 5:31VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: William Karlsson, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 9:44VGKPaul CotterAssists: Brayden McNabb, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 18:47TBLNick PaulGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:18VGKIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:51TBLHaydn Fleury: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:44TBLBrandon Hagel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:44TBLBrandon Hagel: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:44VGKIvan Barbashev: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:56VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:27TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:27VGKNicolas Roy: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:10VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:15TBLNikita Kucherov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23VGKNicolas Hague: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:14TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Roy – Cotter9:07
xG 0.90–0.16 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:11
xG 0.69–0.70 (49%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Carrier – Amadio – Howden9:59
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
- Marchessault – Stephenson – Dorofeyev8:40
xG 0.17–0.69 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hague – Whitecloud15:17
xG 0.43–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo12:55
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–18goals 1–2
- McNabb – Hutton15:57
xG 1.12–1.15 (49%)attempts 22–22goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Paul – Point9:34
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel12:47
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Motte – Sheary – Barré-Boulet5:31
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Glendening – Eyssimont – Jeannot7:41
xG 0.06–0.74 (8%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix6:07
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Fleury – Cernak7:45
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Fleury – Perbix8:17
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).