Sun, Jan 14, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 17 | 37 | 424 |
| TOR | 07 | 214 | 09 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:32TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:39DETDylan LarkinAssists: David Perron · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 18:18TORMitch MarnerAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 2:46DETDaniel SprongAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 18:20DETAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:41DETLucas RaymondENAssists: Ben Chiarot, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:52DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:14DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P1 11:35TORTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:51DETDaniel Sprong: Holding2 min
- P2 10:59TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Sprong – Veleno3:11
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen7:18
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond8:55
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Compher – DeBrincat – Veleno2:13
xG 0.05–0.24 (19%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Maatta10:44
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:54
xG 0.46–0.55 (45%)attempts 12–24goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Seider15:22
xG 0.23–0.78 (22%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Domi – Marner10:01
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Holmberg12:09
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Robertson10:10
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Gregor – Kampf – Knies7:35
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Liljegren13:29
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Timmins – Benoit9:32
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:50
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).