Thu, Feb 15, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 111 | 19 | 331 |
| TBL | 215 | 08 | 416 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:08COLBowen ByramAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:18TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:25TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 15:03COLBowen ByramAssists: Ross Colton, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.30 xG2–2
- P3 3:40COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 4:00TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 8:13TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 19:28TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
- P3 19:34TBLNick PerbixENAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.50 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:47COLJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:05TBLHaydn Fleury: Interference2 min
- P2 1:01COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:14TBLErik Cernak: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:40TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Lehkonen – Colton7:20
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Parise – Cogliano – Johansen2:23
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:10
xG 0.76–0.84 (47%)attempts 19–22goals 1–1
- Parise – Olofsson – Kiviranta4:09
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram6:13
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Manson – Byram3:12
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram3:37
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point13:40
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Motte – Sheary – Eyssimont6:47
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont6:38
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Barré-Boulet – Chaffee3:57
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh14:15
xG 1.01–0.54 (65%)attempts 18–13goals 3–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:12
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Fleury – Cernak13:51
xG 0.71–0.70 (50%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).