Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 111 | 16 | 222 |
| PHI | 18 | 08 | 515 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Morgan Frost, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:35TBLNick PaulAssists: Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 0:54PHITyson FoersterAssists: Morgan Frost · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 3:08PHITravis SanheimGWGAssists: Noah Cates, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 6:55PHISean WalkerAssists: Joel Farabee, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 14:34TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:22PHINoah CatesENAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.62 xG2–5
- P3 17:41PHICam YorkENAssists: Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:51PHIOwen Tippett: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:15PHIJoel Farabee: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:41TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:56TBLBrandon Hagel: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:08TBLEmil Lilleberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Paul – Sheary7:20
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel12:43
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Glendening – Motte – Chaffee3:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Eyssimont – Chaffee8:31
xG 0.13–0.60 (18%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Raddysh – Cernak3:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Crozier5:51
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Brink2:27
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Couturier – Lycksell6:48
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates11:24
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Laughton – Tippett – Foerster4:45
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker13:55
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Staal – Zamula12:57
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York14:18
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).