Tue, Mar 19, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 03 | 38 | 521 |
| VGK | 17 | 18 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:00TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 10:37TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 16:52VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:52TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 8:16VGKBen HuttonAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 12:14TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:51TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Erik Cernak, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:05TBLAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:44VGKIvan Barbashev: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:14TBLConor Sheary: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:24VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:44VGKNicolas Hague: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:23TBLMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P3 18:51VGKAnthony Mantha: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot7:45
xG 0.04–0.05 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Paul – Sheary – Eyssimont7:16
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Duclair – Point10:23
xG 0.50–0.60 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel11:02
xG 0.12–0.60 (16%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Raddysh12:27
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 2–2
- de Haan – Perbix11:05
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dumba – Cernak14:09
xG 0.07–0.53 (12%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Howden2:58
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel10:08
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Carrier – Mantha2:58
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Mantha – Roy7:53
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:24
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Martinez – Hutton10:47
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Hague11:51
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).