Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 115 | 17 | 231 |
| TBL | 111 | 113 | 19 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:38TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 6:31CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:17TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Darren Raddysh, Conor Geekie · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 9:56CARJordan StaalAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 19:08TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:09CARJalen Chatfield: Holding2 min
- P2 3:57CARTy Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:18CARBrent Burns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:28TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:50
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Aho – Jarvis – Blake3:21
xG 0.08–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov11:21
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Roslovic – Drury – Jaaska2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Walker – Smith10:14
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Orlov – Walker2:21
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin16:12
xG 0.64–0.97 (40%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point13:43
xG 1.10–0.47 (70%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie8:50
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Goncalves6:13
xG 0.02–0.03 (37%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee11:55
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak16:00
xG 1.25–0.18 (87%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh16:18
xG 1.22–0.48 (72%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Perbix – Lilleberg14:26
xG 0.37–0.98 (27%)attempts 12–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).