Thu, Oct 17, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 210 | 110 | 05 | 325 |
| TBL | 29 | 09 | 27 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:21TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Cam Atkinson, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:20VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 19:47TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 1:59VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 17:38TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Mitchell Chaffee, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 19:05TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:06TBLConor Geekie: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16TBLMichael Eyssimont: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:47VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:37VGKBrendan Brisson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:08TBLConor Geekie: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSchwindt – Holtz – Brisson7:34
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden10:35
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–1
- Pearson – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:19
xG 0.51–0.98 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:59
xG 0.39–0.88 (31%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Whitecloud16:37
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore14:29
xG 0.51–1.14 (31%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
- Hanifin – Hague14:05
xG 0.47–1.12 (30%)attempts 8–25goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point15:59
xG 1.74–0.62 (74%)attempts 28–11goals 2–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel10:48
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Glendening – Girgensons – Chaffee7:05
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Eyssimont – Geekie7:32
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser16:26
xG 1.71–0.88 (66%)attempts 28–13goals 2–1
- McDonagh – Cernak13:37
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg11:04
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).