Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Dallas Stars 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 18 | 23 | 423 |
| TOR | 18 | 011 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:33DALLogan StankovenAssists: Sam Steel, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 12:35DALMavrik BourquePPGWGAssists: Logan Stankoven, Thomas Harley · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 1:06DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Between legs, 0.00 xG3–1
- P3 2:54DALLogan StankovenAssists: Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:49DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:31TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:01TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:40TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25DALSam Steel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Stankoven9:44
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque4:46
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bourque2:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston10:02
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lyubushkin13:55
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Dumba – Harley11:49
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist12:31
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Robertson – McMann8:38
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Marner – Lorentz – Matthews6:18
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Knies9:27
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies2:32
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Tanev11:37
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins4:17
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Rielly – Myers16:04
xG 0.44–0.77 (37%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).